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Audio September 25, 2026

Treasury Leaders Brace for a New Era of Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Uncertainty

Soojin Lee, Managing Director, Head of Treasury Americas

Amit Kalyanaraman, Managing Director, Chief of Staff, UBS

Chloe Li, Director, Quantitative Analysis and Strategy, BMO Financial Group

Charles Richard, Co-Founder

Treasury and ALM leaders Soojin Lee from ING Americas, Chloe Li from BMO, and Amit Kalyanraman from UBS Americas Holding join Charles Richard from QRM to explore how geopolitical tensions, tariffs, inflation, and shifting rate expectations are reshaping balance sheet strategy. The discussion examines stagflation risks, liquidity management, deposit behaviour, and stress testing, offering insights into how banks can build resilience amid growing economic uncertainty.

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The discussion makes clear that treasury and ALM teams are operating in a fundamentally different environment than they were just a few years ago. Geopolitical conflicts, trade disputes, persistent inflation, and uncertainty around monetary policy are creating a level of volatility that challenges traditional assumptions about balance sheet management. While the panel sees moderate growth as the most likely base case, there is growing concern that stagflation risks cannot be ignored. As a result, treasury leaders are being forced to think beyond simple interest rate forecasts and consider how events ranging from tariffs to energy price shocks could affect liquidity, funding, deposits, and profitability.

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